LOCAL VALIDATION · PREGAME FORECAST DIFFERENCES
NBA comparison · November 09, 2026
Updated Nov 10 23:46:35 Havana
Readiness checks incomplete
How to read this comparison
This report compares saved production forecasts with today's updated local baseline and KPI version. Positive differences mean a larger prediction, not better accuracy. We can determine who performed better only after games finish.
The corrected local baseline includes exact player identity resolution, date-grouped model validation and the role-minute correction. The KPI version uses that exact internal baseline, adjusts supported player points within the same team total, and leaves rebounds, assists and minutes unchanged.
Roster and injury announcement times are not independently verified. Prepared available depth records remain the lineup source; stale or undated out-file conflicts are retained as uncertainty. Production input equality at generation is unverified. Exact roster IDs link Atlanta’s NBA and provider records; players are not matched by a guessed name.
Execution and policy checks
| Game | Operational check | Raw/final/PBP | Shooting and score integrity | Declared starters | Available depth coverage |
|---|
Player points use a 50% KPI blend. Rebounds, assists and minutes remain unchanged by this layer. Team totals are preserved. Learned calibration stays at its neutral setting until sufficient independent evidence exists.
Luna review of yesterday’s results: Not recorded. Validated hypotheses remain under review and do not automatically change forecasts.
Policy identity
v7.1_live_daily_refit
d2eeef6ecd2d9bc43d39fb562ee35d9362b30c3246c35977a6a1a3718543d9b3
Team score differences
| Game | Team | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHA | CLE | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| CLE@CHA | CHA | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| LAL@ATL | LAL | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| LAL@ATL | ATL | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| WAS@DET | WAS | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| WAS@DET | DET | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| MEM@TOR | MEM | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| MEM@TOR | TOR | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| IND@DAL | IND | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| IND@DAL | DAL | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| DEN@HOU | DEN | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| DEN@HOU | HOU | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| SA@PHO | SA | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| SA@PHO | PHO | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| NO@GS | NO | 111.00 | 111.00 | 111.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | GS | 122.00 | 122.00 | 122.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
The zero KPI-versus-baseline team change is intentional. Player points can be redistributed while preserving coherent shooting counts and the baseline's team score.
Largest player points changes
Sorted by absolute KPI-versus-production forecast difference. These are differences to inspect, not measured gains.
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GS | Stephen Curry | GS | Points | 31.00 | 33.00 | 31.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| NO@GS | De'Anthony Melton | GS | Points | 8.00 | 7.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Georges Niang | GS | Points | 9.00 | 8.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandon Williams | GS | Points | 12.00 | 11.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Al Horford | GS | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Draymond Green | GS | Points | 6.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Charles Bassey | GS | Points | 6.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandin Podziemski | GS | Points | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Gui Santos | GS | Points | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | Graham Ike | GS | Points | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS | Points | 19.00 | 21.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| NO@GS | Dejounte Murray | NO | Points | 14.00 | 12.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 | +2.00 |
| NO@GS | Jordan Poole | NO | Points | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Saddiq Bey | NO | Points | 18.00 | 16.00 | 18.00 | +0.00 | +2.00 |
| NO@GS | Herbert Jones | NO | Points | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | Bryce McGowens | NO | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jeremiah Fears | NO | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bennedict Mathurin | NO | Points | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | AJ Johnson | NO | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Derik Queen | NO | Points | 15.00 | 17.00 | 15.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
Player coverage
| Game | Production players | Local baseline players | KPI players | Shared by all three |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHA | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| LAL@ATL | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| WAS@DET | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| MEM@TOR | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| IND@DAL | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| DEN@HOU | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| SA@PHO | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| NO@GS | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Missing means no forecast for that player in that system. It does not establish that the player will not play. Per-game missing lists and all statistics appear below.
Output integrity, separate from accuracy
These checks verify basketball arithmetic. They do not establish prediction accuracy. Production values remain exactly as captured, including any inconsistency; the report does not repair or replace them.
| Game | Forecast | Consistency check |
|---|---|---|
| NO@GS | Production snapshot | Passed |
| NO@GS | Updated local baseline | Passed |
| NO@GS | Local + KPI | Passed |
Every player comparison
CLE@CHA
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
LAL@ATL
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
WAS@DET
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
MEM@TOR
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
IND@DAL
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
DEN@HOU
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
SA@PHO
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
NO@GS
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GS | Stephen Curry | GS | Points | 31.00 | 33.00 | 31.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| NO@GS | Stephen Curry | GS | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Stephen Curry | GS | Assists | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Stephen Curry | GS | Minutes | 31.00 | 31.00 | 31.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | De'Anthony Melton | GS | Points | 8.00 | 7.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | De'Anthony Melton | GS | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | De'Anthony Melton | GS | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | De'Anthony Melton | GS | Minutes | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Georges Niang | GS | Points | 9.00 | 8.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Georges Niang | GS | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Georges Niang | GS | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Georges Niang | GS | Minutes | 21.00 | 21.00 | 21.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandon Williams | GS | Points | 12.00 | 11.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandon Williams | GS | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandon Williams | GS | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandon Williams | GS | Minutes | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Al Horford | GS | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Al Horford | GS | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Al Horford | GS | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Al Horford | GS | Minutes | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Draymond Green | GS | Points | 6.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Draymond Green | GS | Rebounds | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Draymond Green | GS | Assists | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Draymond Green | GS | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Charles Bassey | GS | Points | 6.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| NO@GS | Charles Bassey | GS | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Charles Bassey | GS | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Charles Bassey | GS | Minutes | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandin Podziemski | GS | Points | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandin Podziemski | GS | Rebounds | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandin Podziemski | GS | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Brandin Podziemski | GS | Minutes | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Gui Santos | GS | Points | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | Gui Santos | GS | Rebounds | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Gui Santos | GS | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Gui Santos | GS | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Graham Ike | GS | Points | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Graham Ike | GS | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Graham Ike | GS | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Graham Ike | GS | Minutes | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS | Points | 19.00 | 21.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| NO@GS | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS | Rebounds | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS | Assists | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS | Minutes | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Dejounte Murray | NO | Points | 14.00 | 12.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 | +2.00 |
| NO@GS | Dejounte Murray | NO | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Dejounte Murray | NO | Assists | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Dejounte Murray | NO | Minutes | 39.00 | 39.00 | 39.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jordan Poole | NO | Points | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jordan Poole | NO | Rebounds | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jordan Poole | NO | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jordan Poole | NO | Minutes | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Saddiq Bey | NO | Points | 18.00 | 16.00 | 18.00 | +0.00 | +2.00 |
| NO@GS | Saddiq Bey | NO | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Saddiq Bey | NO | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Saddiq Bey | NO | Minutes | 33.00 | 33.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Herbert Jones | NO | Points | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | Herbert Jones | NO | Rebounds | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Herbert Jones | NO | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Herbert Jones | NO | Minutes | 33.00 | 33.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bryce McGowens | NO | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bryce McGowens | NO | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bryce McGowens | NO | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bryce McGowens | NO | Minutes | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jeremiah Fears | NO | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jeremiah Fears | NO | Rebounds | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jeremiah Fears | NO | Assists | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Jeremiah Fears | NO | Minutes | 38.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bennedict Mathurin | NO | Points | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| NO@GS | Bennedict Mathurin | NO | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bennedict Mathurin | NO | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Bennedict Mathurin | NO | Minutes | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | AJ Johnson | NO | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | AJ Johnson | NO | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | AJ Johnson | NO | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | AJ Johnson | NO | Minutes | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Derik Queen | NO | Points | 15.00 | 17.00 | 15.00 | +0.00 | -2.00 |
| NO@GS | Derik Queen | NO | Rebounds | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Derik Queen | NO | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Derik Queen | NO | Minutes | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Karlo Matković | NO | Points | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Karlo Matković | NO | Rebounds | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Karlo Matković | NO | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| NO@GS | Karlo Matković | NO | Minutes | 33.00 | 33.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Sources and timing
Result source check: verified. Last check: Nov 10 23:44:08 Havana.
0 / 0 published Azure files match the saved production snapshot. Verification: Not recorded.
Production host: Not recorded
Directory: Not recorded
Snapshot retrieved: Not recorded
| Game | Forecast | Generated, Havana | Captured, Havana | Pregame eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GS | Production snapshot | Nov 09 22:32:59 Havana | Nov 09 22:33:01 Havana | True |
| NO@GS | Updated local baseline | Nov 09 22:32:59 Havana | Nov 09 22:33:01 Havana | True |
| NO@GS | Local + KPI | Nov 09 22:32:59 Havana | Nov 09 22:33:01 Havana | True |
Local-only operation. No production mutation or deployment. This is a saved snapshot, not an automatically refreshing page. Final results will populate measured player accuracy, team error and head-to-head rankings during settlement.