LOCAL VALIDATION · PREGAME FORECAST DIFFERENCES
NBA comparison · November 10, 2026
Updated Nov 11 23:32:58 Havana
Readiness checks incomplete
How to read this comparison
This report compares saved production forecasts with today's updated local baseline and KPI version. Positive differences mean a larger prediction, not better accuracy. We can determine who performed better only after games finish.
The corrected local baseline includes exact player identity resolution, date-grouped model validation and the role-minute correction. The KPI version uses that exact internal baseline, adjusts supported player points within the same team total, and leaves rebounds, assists and minutes unchanged.
Roster and injury announcement times are not independently verified. Prepared available depth records remain the lineup source; stale or undated out-file conflicts are retained as uncertainty. Production input equality at generation is unverified. Exact roster IDs link Atlanta’s NBA and provider records; players are not matched by a guessed name.
Execution and policy checks
| Game | Operational check | Raw/final/PBP | Shooting and score integrity | Declared starters | Available depth coverage |
|---|
Player points use a 0% KPI blend. Rebounds, assists and minutes remain unchanged by this layer. Team totals are preserved. Learned calibration stays at its neutral setting until sufficient independent evidence exists.
Luna review of yesterday’s results: Not recorded. Validated hypotheses remain under review and do not automatically change forecasts.
Policy identity
v7.1_live_daily_refit
cb6c9b79073ccd8a8cf41b8e467caa18162c73119e15db2b5e861ce1c6fc1d4b
Team score differences
| Game | Team | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL@NY | MIL | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| MIL@NY | NY | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| BOS@PHI | BOS | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| BOS@PHI | PHI | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| LAC@PHO | LAC | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| LAC@PHO | PHO | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| MIA@UTA | MIA | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| MIA@UTA | UTA | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| ORL@SAC | ORL | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| ORL@SAC | SAC | Missing | Missing | Missing | — | — |
| OKC@POR | OKC | 116.00 | 116.00 | 116.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | POR | 108.00 | 108.00 | 108.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
The zero KPI-versus-baseline team change is intentional. Player points can be redistributed while preserving coherent shooting counts and the baseline's team score.
Largest player points changes
Sorted by absolute KPI-versus-production forecast difference. These are differences to inspect, not measured gains.
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC@POR | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | Points | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | Points | 29.00 | 29.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Kenrich Williams | OKC | Points | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Alex Caruso | OKC | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Bennett Stirtz | OKC | Points | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nikola Topic | OKC | Points | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | Points | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Josh Dix | OKC | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nique Clifford | OKC | Points | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Peavy | OKC | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Aday Mara | OKC | Points | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jared McCain | OKC | Points | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Potter | POR | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Damian Lillard | POR | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Robert Williams III | POR | Points | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jrue Holiday | POR | Points | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Branden Carlson | POR | Points | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Deni Avdija | POR | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Sidy Cissoko | POR | Points | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Player coverage
| Game | Production players | Local baseline players | KPI players | Shared by all three |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL@NY | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| BOS@PHI | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| LAC@PHO | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| MIA@UTA | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| ORL@SAC | Missing | Missing | Missing | 0 |
| OKC@POR | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
Missing means no forecast for that player in that system. It does not establish that the player will not play. Per-game missing lists and all statistics appear below.
Output integrity, separate from accuracy
These checks verify basketball arithmetic. They do not establish prediction accuracy. Production values remain exactly as captured, including any inconsistency; the report does not repair or replace them.
| Game | Forecast | Consistency check |
|---|---|---|
| OKC@POR | Production snapshot | Passed |
| OKC@POR | Updated local baseline | Passed |
| OKC@POR | Local + KPI | Passed |
Every player comparison
MIL@NY
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
BOS@PHI
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
LAC@PHO
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
MIA@UTA
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
ORL@SAC
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|
OKC@POR
Players missing from each forecast
| Forecast | Missing compared with forecast union |
|---|---|
| Production snapshot | None |
| Updated local baseline | None |
| Local + KPI | None |
| Game | Player | Team | Statistic | Production | Local baseline | Local + KPI | KPI − production | KPI − baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC@POR | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | Points | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | Rebounds | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | Assists | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | Points | 29.00 | 29.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | Assists | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | Minutes | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Kenrich Williams | OKC | Points | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Kenrich Williams | OKC | Rebounds | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Kenrich Williams | OKC | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Kenrich Williams | OKC | Minutes | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Alex Caruso | OKC | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Alex Caruso | OKC | Rebounds | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Alex Caruso | OKC | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Alex Caruso | OKC | Minutes | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Bennett Stirtz | OKC | Points | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Bennett Stirtz | OKC | Rebounds | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Bennett Stirtz | OKC | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Bennett Stirtz | OKC | Minutes | 21.00 | 21.00 | 21.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nikola Topic | OKC | Points | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nikola Topic | OKC | Rebounds | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nikola Topic | OKC | Assists | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nikola Topic | OKC | Minutes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | Points | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | Minutes | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | Rebounds | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | Minutes | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Josh Dix | OKC | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Josh Dix | OKC | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Josh Dix | OKC | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Josh Dix | OKC | Minutes | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nique Clifford | OKC | Points | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nique Clifford | OKC | Rebounds | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nique Clifford | OKC | Assists | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Nique Clifford | OKC | Minutes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Peavy | OKC | Points | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Peavy | OKC | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Peavy | OKC | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Peavy | OKC | Minutes | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Aday Mara | OKC | Points | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Aday Mara | OKC | Rebounds | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Aday Mara | OKC | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Aday Mara | OKC | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jared McCain | OKC | Points | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jared McCain | OKC | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jared McCain | OKC | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jared McCain | OKC | Minutes | 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Potter | POR | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Potter | POR | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Potter | POR | Assists | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Micah Potter | POR | Minutes | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Damian Lillard | POR | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Damian Lillard | POR | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Damian Lillard | POR | Assists | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Damian Lillard | POR | Minutes | 29.00 | 29.00 | 29.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Robert Williams III | POR | Points | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Robert Williams III | POR | Rebounds | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Robert Williams III | POR | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Robert Williams III | POR | Minutes | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jrue Holiday | POR | Points | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jrue Holiday | POR | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jrue Holiday | POR | Assists | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jrue Holiday | POR | Minutes | 23.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Branden Carlson | POR | Points | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Branden Carlson | POR | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Branden Carlson | POR | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Branden Carlson | POR | Minutes | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Deni Avdija | POR | Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Deni Avdija | POR | Rebounds | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Deni Avdija | POR | Assists | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Deni Avdija | POR | Minutes | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Sidy Cissoko | POR | Points | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Sidy Cissoko | POR | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Sidy Cissoko | POR | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Sidy Cissoko | POR | Minutes | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Yang Hansen | POR | Points | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Yang Hansen | POR | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Yang Hansen | POR | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Yang Hansen | POR | Minutes | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Scoot Henderson | POR | Points | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Scoot Henderson | POR | Rebounds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Scoot Henderson | POR | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Scoot Henderson | POR | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Chris Youngblood | POR | Points | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Chris Youngblood | POR | Rebounds | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Chris Youngblood | POR | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Chris Youngblood | POR | Minutes | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Donovan Clingan | POR | Points | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Donovan Clingan | POR | Rebounds | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Donovan Clingan | POR | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Donovan Clingan | POR | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Toumani Camara | POR | Points | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Toumani Camara | POR | Rebounds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Toumani Camara | POR | Assists | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Toumani Camara | POR | Minutes | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jayson Kent | POR | Points | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jayson Kent | POR | Rebounds | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jayson Kent | POR | Assists | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| OKC@POR | Jayson Kent | POR | Minutes | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Sources and timing
Result source check: verified. Last check: Nov 11 23:30:04 Havana.
0 / 0 published Azure files match the saved production snapshot. Verification: Not recorded.
Production host: Not recorded
Directory: Not recorded
Snapshot retrieved: Not recorded
| Game | Forecast | Generated, Havana | Captured, Havana | Pregame eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC@POR | Production snapshot | Nov 10 23:30:42 Havana | Nov 10 23:30:44 Havana | True |
| OKC@POR | Updated local baseline | Nov 10 23:30:41 Havana | Nov 10 23:30:44 Havana | True |
| OKC@POR | Local + KPI | Nov 10 23:30:42 Havana | Nov 10 23:30:44 Havana | True |
Local-only operation. No production mutation or deployment. This is a saved snapshot, not an automatically refreshing page. Final results will populate measured player accuracy, team error and head-to-head rankings during settlement.